(It’s called that because one of the most famous examples of this concept took place at a Monte Carlo casino in 1913. More than a few players have been stung by the Monte Carlo fallacy. And not surprisingly, those odds always favor the house. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin. You’ve probably even heard the expression, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. What Is Gambler's Fallacy?īut here’s why it’s a myth: Every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. Seriously, black has hit, like, six times in a row. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
You may go to Vegas for the shows or the restaurants, and maybe catch a little of the nightlife in Las Vegas, but in the casino you can really capitalize on your trip if you can avoid the Monte Carlo gambler's fallacy.It’s called a number of things.